Probability EA, from independent creator Michael Schofield, is a unique trading robot that makes a lot of sense when you think about it. Here’s how it works:
- It works out the trend and then places a small trade in that direction
- Every 5-20 pips it will place another small trade as long as the trend is still evident
- When the trend changes direction and trades start to move from profit to loss Probability EA kicks in and starts closing trades
- It then closes all remaining trades at a preset target level and the process starts again
It’s been in the lab for a few weeks now and I’ve been quite impressed. Every time I check it there is more profit and almost all open trades are in profit too!
See for yourself…
Test 1: Strategy Testing
2009 – April 2010 Strategy Test results taken from Probability EA’s website.
View full 2009 – April 2010 Probability EA Strategy Tester results
Currently running Probability EA on Alpari UK, testing started on 20th September 2010. Current results are as follows:
View our Probability EA Live Test Statement
Lab Result:
12th September 2010:
- Risk increased to 20% from 5%. Hence the big loss which happened to follow the change.
7th November 2010:
- Updated to latest version 7.1.2.
Hi Cam,
whats ur opinion about probability Ea? isn’t it safe and gradually increase the account…. and also it opens minimum lot size so there is minimum risk on a single trade…. is its perform same on real account as demo?
and why u change the minimum lot size to 0.06? isn,t it work better on 0.01 ?
Increasing the risk shouldn’t have an impact on how it’s performing, only how much it will win or lose. I think it went through quite a good spell at the start and now we are seeing it struggle a little. Which just so happens to coincide with the risk change.
I think Probability EA shouldn’t have a problem moving from Demo to Live, given the underlying strategy where it’s not reliant on a big stop loss and small take profit.
Probability EA seems to make money but the number of open trades and the drawdowns are scarry. With a grid trading strategy it could drawdown so much that it triggers a failsafe SL which is usually upwards of 30% of the account. So you could be going along quite happily looking at you a/c balance go up then suddenly bamm, a 30, 50% haircut.
Have you looked at Reliability EA? The price tag was pretty steep and he only had a little live trading results to back the price he was asking at the intro. I didn’t bite.
Yeah, had a look at reliability ea and thought the same… Just not enough proof for the price tag.
GEESH Cams, now this bot suddenly springs into action?
lol what gives. by the way, did you ever consider extreme pip poacher? (not really one of my recommendations like fish or anything i just breezed past it and saw it was making some good progress but trades were still VERY young so still not enough proof) just thought you might be interested that’s all 
Yeah, it’s taken off alright… I knew the strategy was sound, it was just a matter of time.
Extreme Pip Poacher was never on my hit list… I’m guessing it will perform okay for a while but in the long run I don’t hold out much hope.
Hi Cam,
On that last comment made in February, do you have the same opinion of Pro Trade Copycat?
Thanks Mate
I haven’t got anything to base an opinion re Pro Trade Copycat.
Hi Cam Im thinking of getting this EA, are you still trading with it? and how is it doing?
No, it could never seem to get past it’s 60% return mark… too slow for my liking… but it did make money!
Hi Cam, by 60% return mark, what do you mean exactly?
I stopped the test at 68% because it was taking too long for my liking to grow my account.
Hi Cam, would running probability ea along side megadroid make sense to you? Im thinking if it makes money and megadroid makes money albeit slowly, they could be a good combination to just run and forget about
Iam new in gold trading .I sruchape this Expert Advisor one month ago i install with the full support ofsupport team on my mt4 and set the mt4 on the vps. total trades in 17 trading days is 53 out the 45 is postiveohh awsome that was the great worth investing to this EA. I gain the investing money of ea in first weakand after that my capital is going up and iam waiting for the double my money in this month end i beliveit will make in two months as i see its progress and then i will withdraw my initial capital and rum this expert on my profit.what you say guys about this idea.
Good idea Sarah! it never hurts to take your money off the table.